Bitcoin traded near $115,000 Monday as cryptocurrency markets prepared for the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate decision Wednesday, with traders positioning for what could be the first rate cut of 2025.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency consolidated between $115,000 and $116,000 through the weekend, hovering near resistance levels as investors monitored economic data and central bank policy signals.
Markets are overwhelmingly betting on monetary easing, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 93% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut. The expected policy shift comes despite mixed economic signals, including headline consumer price inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month in August versus expectations of 0.3%.
“The combination of improving leading indicators, ongoing loose financial conditions, and strong market breadth that includes participation by cyclical industries favors an ongoing economic expansion,” said Mosaic Asset Company in a market update.
On-Chain Indicators Flash Bullish Signals
Despite short-term price hesitation, underlying Bitcoin metrics suggest continued market strength. Data from CryptoQuant shows 93.6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently trades in profit — well above the long-term average of 75% — while Bitcoin addresses holding non-zero balances reached year-to-date highs at 54.37 million.
U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds attracted $2.3 billion in net inflows during the week ending Sept. 12, reversing August’s outflows of $749.2 million. The institutional demand coincided with accumulation by mid-sized holders controlling 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin, who added more than 65,000 BTC in early September.
Technical Resistance Tests Market Patience
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance around $115,892, with analysts noting two failed attempts to break higher have created a consolidation pattern. A decisive break above this level could trigger rallies toward $119,367 and potentially $122,190, while failure to hold support could see prices retreat to $111,961.
Bitcoin has historically performed well during Fed easing cycles, as lower interest rates reduce the appeal of fixed-income investments and drive capital toward risk assets. The cryptocurrency averaged returns exceeding 84% in fourth quarters since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.
The convergence of favorable monetary policy expectations, institutional flows totaling billions in recent weeks, and bullish on-chain fundamentals has positioned Bitcoin at what analysts describe as a critical juncture ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday announcement.
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