November 3, 2025 – Bitcoin enters November trading around $110,000 after a challenging October that saw the cryptocurrency decline approximately 8.5%, marking the first negative “Uptober” performance in six years. As the market seeks direction, analysts are closely monitoring key technical levels, mining difficulty adjustments, and shifting market dynamics that could determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim its bullish momentum.
Current Market Snapshot
Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $110,163, down 1.45% over the past week but holding near-flat in 24-hour trading. The broader cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.71 trillion, reflecting cautious sentiment with a Fear & Greed Index reading of just 33, indicating persistent fear among market participants.
The market’s technical indicators paint a bearish picture, with 20 signals showing bearish sentiment compared to just 10 bullish indicators. Bitcoin dominance has risen to approximately 59%, up 1.18% in the past 24 hours, suggesting capital continues to favor the leading cryptocurrency over altcoins during this period of uncertainty.
Bitcoin Dominance Signals Market Rotation
Market analyst PlanD has identified a critical pattern in Bitcoin Dominance that mirrors conditions observed before the significant altcoin rally in July 2025. The Bitcoin Dominance metric sustained an uptrend for approximately 50 days before breaking down, representing a heavy rotation of capital to other cryptocurrencies. According to PlanD’s analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), the technical groundwork is now complete for another potential breakdown in dominance, which historically precedes periods of strong altcoin performance.
The Altcoin Season Index currently registers at 32 out of 100, firmly in “Bitcoin Season” territory. This marks a significant decline from readings of 70 just one month ago, reflecting the 62.86% drop over the past 30 days. The index, which measures how many of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day period, requires a reading above 75 to signal a true altcoin season.
Learn more about Bitcoin Dominance at CoinMarketCap
Mining Difficulty Reaches New Heights
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty surged this week by 6.31%, reaching an all-time high of 155.97 trillion. This algorithmic adjustment, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, reflects the colossal computing power deployed by miners worldwide. Despite this increased pressure, the network hashrate remains above 1,100 exahashes per second, signaling the technical resilience of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is estimated to occur on November 12, 2025, with projections indicating a further increase to approximately 157.55 trillion. Bitcoin blocks are currently being mined 0.10 minutes faster than the target 10-minute average, necessitating this upward adjustment to maintain network security and consistent block production.
This difficulty increase mechanically reduces miners’ profit margins, as each exahash deployed must work harder to validate a block and receive the current post-halving reward of 3.125 BTC. The challenge for miners is compounded by transaction fees remaining at cycle lows, creating pressure on operational sustainability.
Track live mining difficulty data at CoinWarz
Historical November Performance: Hope or Hype?
Crypto influencer Lark Davis has called November Bitcoin’s “strongest month,” citing an average gain of approximately 42.5% since 2013. However, this figure requires important context. While the mean return is indeed 42.5%, the median return is just 8.81%, with the average heavily skewed by November 2013’s extraordinary 449.35% outlier performance.
Historical data shows that in November 2020, Bitcoin gained 42.9%, and in November 2017, the cryptocurrency surged almost 59%. The pattern has been broken several times, however, with notable losses in 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%). This dispersion in outcomes suggests that while November has bullish seasonal tendencies, the results vary significantly based on broader market conditions.
Institutional Activity and ETF Flows
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds recorded substantial net inflows during October, totaling $3.69 billion for the month. Bitcoin ETFs began October with cumulative flows at $58.4 billion and closed at $62.1 billion, demonstrating continued institutional appetite despite mid-October volatility. On October 21 alone, nearly half a billion dollars in new inflows were recorded, led by BlackRock and Fidelity.
Rachel Lin, Co-Founder and CEO of SynFutures, provided exclusive commentary to BeInCrypto on the current market dynamics: “We’ve seen Bitcoin trade in that $104,000 to $108,000 range recently. Looking ahead, I think November will likely bring consolidation or a modest recovery—not a full-on rally unless a strong catalyst appears. If trade tensions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $90,000 area. But if support holds above $110,000, we could easily see a 10 to 20% rebound toward $120,000 to $140,000 by the end of the month, especially with ETF inflows holding up and whales quietly accumulating.”
Institutions increasingly view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a hedge against inflation and global uncertainty. ETF holders now control over 6% of the total Bitcoin supply, with regulation improving and fees dropping, making it easier than ever for traditional investors to gain exposure.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Opportunities
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in early November 2025, with a 63% probability of an additional cut in December. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted that this may be the last rate cut of 2025, tempering expectations for additional monetary easing. The end of quantitative tightening in December could inject fresh liquidity into markets, historically beneficial for Bitcoin’s risk profile.
U.S.-China trade relations have shown improvement, with tariffs reduced from 100% to 47%, creating dual-edged volatility risks but also removing some geopolitical uncertainty. However, regulatory delays including crypto ETF approvals and the CLARITY Act have created headwinds that dampen institutional adoption critical for long-term price discovery.
The Federal Reserve’s uncertain policy path remains the biggest weight on current sentiment. After a modest rate cut earlier this quarter, Fed officials have hinted that further easing may not come in December. This “higher-for-longer” scenario has strengthened the U.S. dollar and lifted Treasury yields, a combination that typically drains liquidity from risk assets including cryptocurrency.
Altcoin Season: On the Horizon or False Hope?
Since mid-October, many altcoins have experienced sharp declines due to widespread deleveraging in the derivatives market. However, analysts believe several indicators now suggest altcoins may be forming a stabilization zone and preparing for a short-term rebound in November. The market’s Fear & Greed Index stood at 29 at the end of October, reflecting persistent fear that has lasted three consecutive weeks.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has identified striking parallels with major historical periods, suggesting altcoins are currently trading at undervaluation levels comparable to the lows of Q4 2016 and Q1 2020. Van de Poppe believes the current setup could precede a significant altcoin rally, though other analysts like Altcoin Vector anticipate only short-term relief rallies rather than a sustained altcoin season.
Historically, altcoin seasons often begin around November. However, current market sentiment remains cautious with the Altcoin Season Index below 50, and fear continues to linger among investors even as the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates. This reflects a very different environment compared to past cycles.
Technical Analysis and Price Targets
Bitcoin’s near-term target remains its all-time high of $126,199, which requires a 10.2% rise from current levels. To achieve this, BTC must first clear strong resistance zones at $117,261 and $120,000, where heavy supply from profit-takers could temporarily slow progress. The cryptocurrency recently broke above its 200-day exponential moving average near $108,350, a critical technical support level.
JPMorgan Chase projects Bitcoin reaching $165,000 by year-end, driven by liquidity tailwinds and the conclusion of quantitative tightening. However, this scenario hinges on two critical assumptions: Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above $110,000 to trigger short-term bullish momentum, and U.S.-China trade tensions must remain contained.
For November 2025, the Bitcoin price prediction points to a potential breakout above $113,000, which could extend gains toward $116,000–$118,000. However, failure to clear this zone may trigger a short-term pullback toward $106,000 for liquidity retests. The 20-day EMA near $122,000 would need to be reclaimed to confirm renewed bullish momentum heading into December.
If Bitcoin fails to sustain momentum above $115,000, short-term weakness could reemerge with a potential dip toward $110,000 support. Any move below this critical level would invalidate the bullish outlook and could trigger deeper corrections.
View live Bitcoin charts at TradingView
Analyst Perspectives from Crypto Twitter
Several prominent crypto analysts have shared their views on Bitcoin’s November prospects:
PlanD has identified critical Bitcoin Dominance patterns suggesting an impending altcoin rotation, drawing parallels to the July 2025 setup that preceded significant altcoin gains.
Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) remains bullish on November’s historical strength, though acknowledging the median return of 8.81% provides a more realistic expectation than the 42.5% mean skewed by 2013’s exceptional performance.
CryptoWendyO and other technical analysts are watching the $112,000-$113,000 resistance cluster as the decisive battleground for November’s direction, with RSI readings around 45 suggesting Bitcoin remains in neutral territory.
The consensus among analysts appears to be cautiously optimistic, with most expecting consolidation or modest gains rather than explosive upside without a strong catalyst.
Market Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty
The current bearish technical tone doesn’t mark the end of the bull cycle but rather represents a healthy reset after an aggressive run earlier in the year. Liquidity is pausing rather than fleeing the market. Structural adoption, particularly in regions like the UAE and Asia, continues to build the foundation for the next wave of growth.
One analyst pointed out that this is not a collapse but more of a reset. These phases typically appear when the economy slows down and liquidity shifts instead of growing. Rate cuts can spark strong bouncebacks, but the path upward is rarely smooth or predictable. Through all the rallies and dips, Bitcoin has been the only cryptocurrency consistently pushing higher, while most altcoins remain well behind their 2021 peaks.
Several key factors will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory through November:
Federal Reserve Policy: December’s potential rate cut and the conclusion of quantitative tightening could provide the liquidity injection needed for sustained upward movement.
Technical Levels: The ability to reclaim and hold $112,000-$113,000 resistance will be crucial for confirming bullish momentum. Failure here could lead to retests of lower support around $106,000-$108,000.
Institutional Flows: Sustained positive ETF inflows will be necessary to absorb selling pressure and drive prices higher. Any reversal to consistent outflows would signal waning institutional confidence.
Geopolitical Stability: Continued improvement in U.S.-China relations and resolution of regulatory uncertainties could remove key overhangs currently limiting upside potential.
Mining Dynamics: As difficulty continues rising and miner profitability compresses, any significant miner capitulation could create temporary selling pressure but would ultimately strengthen network security.
Conclusion
Bitcoin enters November 2025 at a critical juncture. While historical seasonality and institutional adoption trends provide reasons for optimism, immediate technical challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties temper expectations for explosive gains. The cryptocurrency’s ability to hold support above $110,000 and eventually break through the $112,000-$113,000 resistance zone will likely determine whether November delivers on its historical reputation as Bitcoin’s strongest month.
If macro conditions stabilize and traders regain confidence, November could end with Bitcoin reclaiming momentum toward $115,000 and setting the stage for a more optimistic December. However, investors should maintain selective exposure and proper risk management given the elevated volatility and mixed signals currently present in the market.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation phase, with the balance of probabilities suggesting either modest gains aligned with the historical median performance or continued range-bound trading until clearer catalysts emerge. The coming weeks will prove decisive in establishing the trajectory for the final stretch of 2025.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
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