November 28, 2025
Bitcoin has mounted an impressive recovery after touching seven-month lows near $80,000 last week, reclaiming the $91,000 level as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of stabilization. The bounce comes amid a crucial confluence of technical factors, including a rare mining difficulty decrease, shifting Bitcoin dominance patterns, and renewed speculation about an impending altseason.
Current Market Overview
As of Thursday morning, Bitcoin is trading around $91,700, marking a significant 14% rebound from last Friday’s bottom of $80,300. The recovery has been accompanied by a modest $130 billion influx into the overall cryptocurrency market, pushing total market capitalization back above the $3.2 trillion mark.
According to FXStreet, Bitcoin managed to hold a key support level and bounced sharply, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a mild inflow of $21.12 million on Wednesday, suggesting reduced selling pressure from institutional players.
Hash Ribbon Signals Potential Bottom Formation
One of the most significant technical developments this week is the appearance of the Hash Ribbon crossover, a historically reliable indicator that often marks cyclical bottoms for Bitcoin price. According to CoinDesk, this signal appeared after Bitcoin’s 35% correction from October’s all-time high near $126,000.
The Hash Ribbon tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of network hashrate, indicating when mining becomes unprofitable and miners begin capitulating. This pattern has historically aligned with strong bottom conditions, suggesting that the worst of the sell-off may be behind us.
Mining Difficulty Drops 1.95% – Second Consecutive Decline
In a significant development for Bitcoin miners, the network’s mining difficulty dropped by 1.95% to 149.30 trillion at block height 925,344 on November 27, as reported by Bitcoin Ethereum News. This marks the second consecutive difficulty decrease in November and the seventh downward adjustment in 2025.
The reduction provides temporary relief to mining operations that have been squeezed by high operational costs and compressed margins. With the network’s seven-day average hashrate standing at 1.02 ZH/s, the difficulty adjustment helps rebalance the economics for miners, making block discovery more achievable with existing hardware.
However, this relief comes against a troubling backdrop. According to Bitcoin Ethereum News, public mining stocks have erased nearly $30 billion in market value during November, falling from a peak near $87 billion to approximately $55 billion before a partial recovery toward $65 billion. The difficulty decreases signal that marginal miners are being forced offline, leading to industry consolidation.
“Bitcoin’s hashrate is near record levels, yet miner revenue per unit of compute has fallen to record lows, pushing the network into a ‘high-security, low-profitability’ phase.” – Bitcoin Ethereum News Analysis
The next difficulty adjustment is estimated to take place on December 10, 2025, and is projected to increase difficulty from 149.30T to 153.13T, according to CoinWarz.
Bitcoin Dominance Weakens: Altseason on the Horizon?
Bitcoin dominance currently sits around 56.6-59.94% depending on the source, showing signs of weakness that could herald the beginning of altseason. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $1.79 trillion out of a total crypto market cap of $3.17 trillion.
Analyst Matthew Hyland noted that the BTC dominance chart has “looked bearish for many weeks,” with the downtrend favorable to continue. Several crypto analysts are drawing parallels to the 2019-2020 cycle, when Bitcoin dominance dropped significantly before a major altcoin rally ensued.
Michaël van de Poppe compared the current cycle to late 2019 and early 2020, anticipating a second drop in BTC dominance this quarter. Meanwhile, trader Don pointed to a head-and-shoulders structure on the Bitcoin dominance chart—a bearish reversal signal that could drive dominance lower and shift capital toward altcoins.
The Altcoin Season Index currently reads 24/100, firmly indicating “Bitcoin Season,” but historical patterns suggest that when this metric rebounds above 40 and holds for several weeks, altcoin season often follows within one quarter, according to CoinDCX.
Analyst Perspectives: Divided Views on Recovery Strength
Tom Lee: December Rally Still Possible
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, one of Bitcoin’s most prominent bulls, has notably tempered his year-end expectations. Speaking to CNBC on November 27, Lee walked back his $250,000 target, now describing a return to all-time highs as a “maybe” rather than a certainty.
However, Lee remains optimistic about a strong December rally, attributing the recent weakness to the October 10 liquidation event that “severely damaged market-maker balance sheets.” He explained that this $19 billion liquidation shock crippled the liquidity providers who serve as the “central banks” of crypto.
🚨TOM LEE: YEAR-END RALLY IS COMING
Despite a brutal six weeks, Tom Lee says a STRONG December rally is on deck, backed by by a dovish incoming Fed pivot. pic.twitter.com/G9afNmV0RR— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) November 27, 2025
Lee emphasized that Bitcoin typically “makes its move” in just 10 days each year, and several of those explosive days could still occur before year-end. He expects Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 before December 31, though the path to new all-time highs remains uncertain.
Willy Woo: Focus on Dollar Strength, Not M2
Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has shifted focus away from traditional liquidity metrics, arguing that the US Dollar Index (DXY) now serves as the most accurate indicator for Bitcoin’s direction. According to BeInCrypto, Woo stated:
“Markets don’t follow the expansion of global M2; they are speculative. Risk assets lead M2… BTC acts like a liquidity-sensing mechanism. M2 is a flawed metric because it’s measured in USD, but only 17% of global liquidity is actually dollars.”
When the dollar strengthens (higher DXY), liquidity tightens and Bitcoin’s value tends to weaken. Conversely, when DXY falls, risk appetite returns and Bitcoin rallies as global liquidity expands. Woo’s chart showing Bitcoin versus inverse DXY displays positive MACD-D divergence, suggesting potential for a reversal.
PlanB: Stock-to-Flow Model Targets $500K Average for 2025
The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, known as PlanB, maintains his ultra-bullish long-term outlook despite recent volatility. In a January 2025 post, PlanB reaffirmed his forward guidance:
My forward guidance for 2025 has not changed since 2022 (when bitcoin was 20k, see below):
✅rise into April 2024 halving
✅halving around S2F value
✅pump after halving
✅ 100k in 2024
⬜️ 2025: hit S2F target ~500k average (range 250k-1m) https://t.co/Neet5BQ90W pic.twitter.com/osA3vXAW9D— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 1, 2025
PlanB’s S2F model projects Bitcoin could average $500,000 in 2025, with a potential trading range between $250,000 and $1 million. While critics have questioned the model’s statistical validity, PlanB points to the successful achievement of $100,000+ in 2024 as validation of the framework.
Santiment: Bearish Sentiment Creates Opportunity
Market intelligence platform Santiment highlighted that social media sentiment has turned notably bearish, with increased declarations of a bear market. However, historical patterns show that major turnarounds often occur when retail hope is lost—the market moves opposite to crowd expectations.
📊 Bitcoin’s depressing slump to $80K has been followed by an (at least slightly) encouraging bounce back up to $88K. Now, questions are arising about whether last week’s bottom was the best buy opportunity we’ll get. We explore in our latest deep dive. 👇https://t.co/4Hja2WY15J pic.twitter.com/D29wrva0Ie— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 26, 2025
Santiment also noted that whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been shrinking their holdings for six straight weeks, suggesting the recovery to six figures may face headwinds while large holders continue offloading.
Recent News and Market Catalysts
JPMorgan: Bitcoin Could Reach $240K Long-Term
JPMorgan released an analysis suggesting Bitcoin could reach $240,000 over the long term, though the bank emphasized that cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by broader economic trends rather than Bitcoin’s predictable four-year halving cycle. The bank also filed a new structured product tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) with uncapped upside potential through 2028.
Upbit Hack Fails to Shake Market Confidence
In a stunning display of market resilience, Bitcoin continued rising despite hackers stealing $30 million from South Korean exchange Upbit on Thursday. Crypto Dnes reported that Bitcoin actually traded higher after the hack was announced, demonstrating improved market maturity and reduced panic-selling compared to previous security incidents.
ETF Flows Show Stabilization
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of stabilization after weeks of heavy outflows. The mild inflows of $21.12 million on Wednesday and $128.64 million the previous day suggest institutional selling pressure is abating, though these flows remain significantly weaker than the accumulation phase seen earlier in 2024.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
According to CryptoPotato’s analysis, Bitcoin saw meaningful buy-side interest around the $80,000 support range, triggering a strong bounce that suggests ongoing accumulation at discounted prices.
Key resistance levels:
- $92,000-$93,000: Short-term supply zone where Bitcoin faces immediate resistance
- $100,000: Psychological barrier and critical level for confirming trend reversal
- $126,000: Previous all-time high from October
Key support levels:
- $88,000-$90,000: Near-term support established during the recent bounce
- $80,000-$81,000: Major support zone tested last week
- $77,000: Potential downside target mentioned by Tom Lee if weakness persists
The 2-week liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin trading directly below a dense cluster of liquidation levels, especially beneath the $100,000 psychological zone. These pockets represent heavy concentrations of short positions that could fuel a squeeze higher if Bitcoin can build momentum above $92,000.
Market Sentiment and Fear & Greed Index
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to levels even lower than those seen during previous capitulation events last week, indicating extreme fear in the market. However, this rebound from the lows has begun to restore some confidence, with the index moving back from “extreme fear” territory.
Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin bottoms often form when sentiment reaches its darkest point, which aligns with the current contrarian indicators flashing across multiple metrics.
Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Warranted
Bitcoin’s recovery from $80,000 to above $91,000 demonstrates resilience in the face of significant headwinds, including mining industry stress, whale distribution, and damaged market-maker liquidity. The confluence of the Hash Ribbon signal, declining mining difficulty, and weakening Bitcoin dominance creates an interesting technical setup heading into December.
While prominent analysts like Tom Lee have tempered their year-end expectations, the potential for explosive moves remains intact given Bitcoin’s historical tendency to compress annual gains into brief windows. The cryptocurrency’s ability to hold above $90,000 and potentially challenge $100,000 in the coming weeks will be crucial for determining whether this marks a true trend reversal or merely a relief rally within a broader correction.
For traders and investors, the current environment offers both opportunity and risk. On-chain metrics suggest seller exhaustion, but liquidity conditions remain fragile. As December approaches—historically a strong month for Bitcoin—all eyes will be on whether institutional flows return and whether the cryptocurrency can reclaim psychological barriers that would confirm the bull market’s continuation into 2026.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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