Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading just above $24,000 after a failed breakout at the $25k resistance.
Given, the dip to weekly lows of $23,600 has had traders keen on the macro outlook for the leading digital asset, with sentiment for a new raging bull market just in check as the market enters the last five days of February.
While the main hurdle remains the macro downtrend line established since November 2021 on the monthly chart, popular trader and technical analyst Rekt Capital says BTC could be looking at a new monthly breakout candle in March or April.
Macro uptrend is on, but BTC faces confluent resistance
In a macro analysis overview of Bitcoin shared via YouTube video, Rekt Capital highlights the current monthly candle as closer to the crucial downtrend resistance line that marked the previous breakouts in June 2015 and in March 2019.
A look at the bear market downtrend from the all-time highs of 2021 suggests that Bitcoin price is approaching fresh breakout point. If the macro picture plays out, BTC will likely see a breakout monthly candle in March or April. The analyst explained:
“Bitcoin is hovering below the resistance but not actually touching that resistance, but the way this candle is similar to both past cycles is that the new monthly candle close – the actual breakout candle – occurs by closing outside of the downtrend.”
For this month, his view is that BTC’s pre-breakout candle will close just below or at resistance (around $24,800). A technical breakout could see BTC/USD shoot higher, potentially rising to forecast levels in the $28k-$30k region. However, from a macro perspective, the price is likely to see some “edging out” from the downtrend, with ranged trading including a retest of key support levels before bulls establish a strong upside momentum.
Rekt says given the struggle around $25k, a retest of the latest downtrend support level at $23,400 is likely before the monthly close. Bitcoin has successfully retested this support area.
A “confluent resistance” zone is also formed around $24,800 which Bitcoin could find easy to break next month compared to the $26,400 hurdle presented on the monthly chart in February.
Technical indicators point to BTC upside flip
Rekt has also shared the technical outlook that has Bitcoin “sandwiched between two key” exponential moving avarage (EMAs). It’s likely price will continue to consolidate within the two bull market EMAs, with a bullish trend appearing if price breaks above the 50-week EMA.
Also suggesting a macro uptrend is on the cards is Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The indicator has recently broken from a downtrending channel and continued above a wedge pattern. A dip to a long-term horizontal line could result in an upside move that launches BTC into a new uptrend, he noted.
Another technical element on the daily chart was the recent invalidation of a head and shoulders pattern, with massive buy-side volume helping price to break to year-to-date highs.
Although huge sell-side volume did inform the directional bias that saw BTC flip lower, it enable a retest of support and break above lower high resistance – which is the new monthly range high. Bulls need to hold prices above the monthly range high around $23,400 to support a potential breakout in coming weeks and months.