Ethereum (ETH/USD) price had a difficult performance in November as concerns about contagion in the crypto market. It dropped to a low of $1,073 following the collapse of FTX and Alameda Research. It has recovered modestly in the past few days and is trading at $1,280, which is about 20% above the lowest level in November.
DeFi and NFT volume diverge
Ethereum price retreated sharply in November following the collapse of FTX and Alameda. In its peak, FTX was the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world by valuation. In January, it raised capital at a $32 billion valuation.
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Historically, the collapse of a major entity leads to a contagion in related parties. For example, the collapse of Lehman Brothers had a major impact in the banking sector. Similarly, the collapse of Terra USD led to the collapse of platforms like Anchor Protocol and Mirror Protocol.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s ecosystem has declined. According to DeFi Llama, the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s ecosystem crashed to about $40 billion. At its peak, the network had a TVL of over $153 billion. Most DeFi platforms like Maker, Lido, Aave, and Curve have dropped by more than 20% in the past 30 days.
On a positive side, Ethereum’s NFTs did well in November. Data by CryptoSlam showed that the volume of NFTs traded in Ethereum jumped to more than $410 billion. That was a big increase from the $324 billion that sold in October and the $354 billion that traded in September. Still, the volume remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $3.99 billion.
The next key catalyst for Ethereum price in December will be the next action by the Federal Reserve. After hiking rates by 400 basis points this year, the Fed has signaled that the bank will start hiking interest rates by a slower pace in December.
Ethereum price forecast
The 4H chart shows that ETH price crashed hard in November. Recently, the coin has staged a strong recovery. As it rose, it managed to move above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.
The coin formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in an upward trend. It has moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, Ethereum price will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance at $1,500. A drop below the support at $1,200 will invalidate the bearish view.