The altcoin market is showing signs of a potential breakout, with the Altcoin Market Cap (ALTMC) approaching a critical threshold that could signal the start of a significant rally, according to a recent analysis shared on X by cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital.
On May 10, 2025, Rekt Capital posted a detailed chart and commentary, highlighting that a weekly close above $250 billion could pave the way for altcoins to climb toward $315 billion, marking a pivotal moment for the sector.
The Altcoin Market Cap, which tracks the total market capitalization of altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, excluding the top 10 by market cap and stablecoins), has been a focal point for investors seeking to gauge the health of the broader crypto market.
Rekt Capital’s chart, sourced from TradingView, illustrates the ALTMC’s historical performance from 2021 to May 2025. The data shows that altcoins have faced significant resistance at the $425 billion level in previous cycles, notably rejecting twice in 2024 at this mark.
However, the analyst notes that the current correction, at -61%, is notably shallower than previous downturns of -69% in 2023 and -85% in 2022. This resilience suggests that the $425 billion resistance level may be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a future breakthrough.
“A Weekly Close above $250bn would likely precede a breakout rally to at least $315bn,” Rekt Capital wrote in the post, which has garnered significant attention from the crypto community.
The analyst further emphasized that such a close would confirm a bottom for altcoins, signaling the end of the correction phase and boosting investor confidence.
The analysis builds on earlier posts by Rekt Capital, who has been tracking the ALTMC’s trajectory since late 2024.
On November 24, 2024, the analyst noted that the ALTMC had historically broken to new all-time highs in every bull market, a trend that appeared to be continuing as altcoins showed upward momentum.
By December 6, 2024, Rekt Capital observed that the market cap was attempting to retest the $425 billion resistance, raising questions about whether a shallower retracement could indicate a weakening barrier.
Fast forward to May 2025, and the market appears closer than ever to confirming this shift. Supporting this analysis, historical cryptocurrency market data from CoinMarketCap provides additional context.
According to CoinMarketCap, which tracks global market metrics, altcoin performance often correlates with Bitcoin dominance trends.
When Bitcoin dominance declines, altcoins typically rally—a phenomenon known as “alt season.” TradingView’s Bitcoin Dominance Chart (BTC.D) further corroborates this, with a recent post noting a bearish cross in Bitcoin dominance indicators as of early 2025, potentially signaling the start of an altcoin surge.
Community reactions to Rekt Capital’s analysis have been overwhelmingly positive, with several users on X expressing optimism about specific altcoins.
One user, guinnessstache, predicted that $SUI might lead the anticipated alt season, stating, “I have a feeling $SUI is going to lead this run’s alt season.” Another user, DaveCrypto91, declared, “Breakout confirmed, alt season imminent,” reflecting growing excitement among investors.
However, not all market indicators are uniformly bullish. A Q1 2025 report from Grayscale, a leading crypto investment firm, noted that crypto markets, including altcoins, experienced a pullback alongside tech stocks and other risky assets.
Despite this, Grayscale highlighted that Bitcoin network activity remained healthy, suggesting a stable foundation for the broader crypto ecosystem.
For now, the altcoin market stands at a critical juncture. A weekly close above $250 billion could confirm Rekt Capital’s prediction of a rally to $315 billion, potentially igniting renewed interest in altcoins. Investors and analysts alike are watching closely, as this breakout could mark the beginning of a new chapter for the altcoin sector in 2025.
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